Can Russell Still Catch Antonelli? The 66-Point Gap and the Qatar/Abu Dhabi Decision
Russell’s Baku win cut the gap to 66 points. But the bigger question may be decided off track: if Qatar or Abu Dhabi is dropped, there are fewer points left, and Antonelli could be champion earlier than anyone expected. Every scenario, explained.
Can Russell Catch Antonelli? The Calendar Twist
66 points, eight rounds, and a decision on Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
For the first time in months, the 2026 title fight feels alive. George Russell won in Baku while Kimi Antonelli recovered only to fifth, and the Mercedes team-mates are now separated by 66 points (302 to 236), down from 81. There are eight rounds left, including Singapore’s Sprint weekend.
But the biggest factor in whether Russell can catch up may not be anything that happens on track. The last two races, Qatar (29 November) and Abu Dhabi (6 December), are in doubt because of the conflict in the Middle East, and teams expect a decision by mid-October, with Imola on standby. If either race is dropped and not replaced, there are fewer points available, and Antonelli’s lead becomes much harder to overturn. Here’s how each calendar scenario changes the maths. For the race-by-race picture, see how Antonelli can clinch the title.
The Gap After Baku
| Pos | Driver | Team | Points | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli LEADER | Mercedes | 302 | — |
| 2 | George Russell | Mercedes | 236 | −66 |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 199 | −103 |
| 4 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 186 | −116 |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 179 | −123 |
Russell is realistic about his chances. “If the season had started today, or since the summer break, I feel very much I would have been able to fight,” he said. “I’ve got this big deficit. It can change quickly. So, I’m not chasing that. I’m chasing to win every race and what will be, will be.”
Antonelli, after crashing in Baku qualifying, was blunt about his own form: “I was always a step behind. Next weekend, I will be back at my level.” Our analysis of how Baku changed the title fight covers that weekend in detail.
The Qatar and Abu Dhabi Decision
The 2026 calendar has already been reshaped by the conflict in the Middle East. The April races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were called off, and this weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix is being held at Sepang in Malaysia instead. Now the two Gulf races at the end of the season are in question.
Teams have been told to expect a decision by mid-October. “Mid-October is the last call for such a decision,” Audi team principal Mattia Binotto said. Red Bull’s Laurent Mekies pointed out the practical problems of a late change, such as finding staff for motorhome structures normally used in Europe, who have other jobs over the winter. Imola has been reported as a standby venue for a replacement final round.
If a race is dropped and not replaced, the total points available shrink. That could leave Antonelli mathematically champion earlier, even without him winning more races. The timing of the decision, just after Singapore, means the calendar itself could become part of the title story.
For the bigger picture of how world events have shaped motorsport this year, see our report on the geopolitical storm rewriting 2026 motorsport.
Three Calendar Scenarios, Three Different Title Fights
Each Grand Prix is worth 25 points to the winner, and Singapore’s Sprint adds 8 more. Here’s how many points are left after Baku in each scenario, and the earliest point Antonelli could realistically wrap it up:
| Scenario | Races left after Baku | Max points left | Realistic earliest clinch |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Full calendar, or Imola replaces a race 8 ROUNDS | Sepang, Singapore, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar/Imola, Abu Dhabi/Imola | 208 | Mexico City (1 Nov) |
| B. One Gulf race dropped, not replaced | 7 rounds | 183 | Austin or Mexico |
| C. Both Gulf races dropped, not replaced 6 ROUNDS | Sepang, Singapore, USA, Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas | 158 | Austin (25 Oct), and in theory Singapore |
What “clinch” means
Antonelli becomes champion when his lead is bigger than the points still available. Here’s how many points would be left after each race under each scenario:
| After… | A. Full calendar | B. One dropped | C. Both dropped |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sepang (4 Oct) | 183 | 158 | 133 |
| Singapore + Sprint (11 Oct) | 150 | 125 | 100 |
| USA (25 Oct) | 125 | 100 | 75 |
| Mexico (1 Nov) | 100 | 75 | 50 |
| Brazil (8 Nov) | 75 | 50 | 25 |
| Las Vegas (21 Nov) | 50 | 25 | 0 |
Scenario C is the dramatic one. With only 100 points left after Singapore, a strong Antonelli weekend at Sepang and Singapore could, in theory, leave him champion before Austin. Even if not, a lead above 75 after the US Grand Prix would settle it with three races still on the calendar.
What Russell Needs to Win the Title
Russell needs to gain 67 points on Antonelli to overtake him outright. Spread across the remaining rounds, that means:
| Scenario | Rounds | Average net gain needed per round | What that looks like |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Full calendar | 8 | ~8.4 pts | Roughly Russell winning while Antonelli finishes third, every weekend |
| B. One race dropped | 7 | ~9.6 pts | Russell wins and Antonelli finishes fourth or lower, most weekends |
| C. Both races dropped | 6 | ~11.2 pts | Russell needs near-perfect weekends and problems for Antonelli |
In a car Antonelli also drives, consistently gaining eight or more points per weekend is a huge ask. Realistically, Russell needs both his own wins and an Antonelli setback, like the Q1 crash in Baku, more than once. Each race dropped from the calendar makes that harder.
Russell can control his own results. He can’t control the calendar. And every race taken away makes Antonelli’s 66-point cushion more valuable.
Verdict: Can Russell Still Catch Antonelli?
Mathematically, yes: under any calendar scenario there are more points left than the gap. Realistically, Russell’s own assessment is right: the deficit is big, and he can only win races and hope. Two things would change that. The first is an Antonelli bad weekend, especially at Singapore, where 33 points are available to each driver. The second is the calendar staying at full length, giving Russell eight rounds rather than six.
The next three weekends will decide which way it goes: Sepang this Sunday, Singapore’s Sprint weekend on 9–11 October, and the calendar decision expected by mid-October. Our Singapore title watch and US Grand Prix guide will be updated as the picture changes.
These numbers are based on the standings after Baku (1 October). We’ll update the gap after Sepang and add the calendar decision as soon as it’s confirmed.
Russell vs Antonelli — FAQ
On track, and off it
Russell has the momentum, Antonelli has the points, and the calendar may have the final word. A 66-point gap over eight rounds is a fight; over six, it’s close to a formality. Watch Sepang, Singapore and the mid-October decision.
We’ll update this page as the standings and the calendar change.
