Russell had done the hard part at Sepang. After qualifying only eighth and starting seventh, he climbed to second in the early laps and was running third when a late safety car came out for Alex Albon’s stricken Williams. As the field prepared for the final restart, his car stopped. Third place would have cost him only three points to Antonelli; the retirement cost him 18.

He didn’t hide his frustration. “You’ve almost got to laugh, it’s beyond disappointment,” he said. “It’s just so many times this season it’s happened.” Asked about his title chances, he was blunt: “I don’t need to say I think it’s gone or whatever, but of course it’s exceptionally unlikely. I knew if I wanted to come back, I needed luck on my side.” Our analysis of how Baku changed the title fight covers the weekend that briefly put him back in contention.

The 2026 calendar was already reshaped by the conflict in the Middle East. The April races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were called off, and the Bahrain Grand Prix was moved to Sepang. Until last week, teams were waiting for a decision on the two Gulf races at the end of the season, expected by mid-October.

F1 has now answered that. “Yes, as we’ve already said, the calendar is confirmed: the last two grands prix will be in Qatar and Abu Dhabi,” CEO Stefano Domenicali said. Imola remains a contingency only, with preparatory work done in case the security picture changes. F1 has said the plan still depends on continuing security reassurances in the weeks before the Qatar race.

For the bigger picture of how world events have shaped motorsport this year, see our report on the geopolitical storm rewriting 2026 motorsport.

Antonelli becomes champion as soon as his lead is bigger than the points still available. (A tie on points is decided by most wins, where Antonelli leads eight to three, but to keep it simple we use the strict test.) Here’s how many points remain after each round:

Austin (25 October) is the earliest possibility. Antonelli would need to gain at least 42 more points on Russell across Singapore and Austin, out of a maximum of 58. That would take something like Antonelli winning both Singapore races and the US Grand Prix while Russell has a poor weekend.

Mexico City (1 November) is much more realistic. Antonelli would only need to outscore Russell by 17 points over Singapore, Austin and Mexico combined, roughly one weekend where he finishes a few places ahead. If Russell keeps winning, it could still go to Brazil or Las Vegas. Our guides to the Singapore GP and the US Grand Prix cover the next two weekends.

To finish ahead, Russell needs to outscore Antonelli by at least 85 points over the last seven rounds. (Exactly 84 would leave them level, and the tie would go to whoever has more wins.) That’s an average of about 12 points per round.

Even winning every remaining race wouldn’t be enough if Antonelli finishes second each time: that’s only 7 points a round, or 49 in total. Russell needs wins and at least two or three weekends where Antonelli scores little or nothing. In the same car, against a team-mate in the form of his life, that’s why Russell himself calls it “exceptionally unlikely”.

Mathematically, the title is still open: 183 points remain and the gap is 84. Realistically, Sepang probably decided it. Russell needs to gain around 12 points a weekend on a team-mate driving the same car, and he would need Antonelli to have several bad weekends, not just one. Antonelli is now on course to be champion in Mexico City or soon after.

The one race that could change the mood is Singapore, where 33 points are available to each driver across the Sprint and the Grand Prix. A Russell double with an Antonelli retirement would put the gap back near 50 heading to Austin. Anything less, and the countdown to Antonelli’s first title begins.