Three things matter from this week’s announcements and statements. First, Rally Italia Sardegna is officially the 13th and final round of the 2026 season. Second, Rally Saudi Arabia is not disappearing entirely — it will still take place in November, but as a national event with no World Championship status, so nothing it produces counts towards the 2026 titles. Third, the drivers’ championship goes to Sardinia genuinely open, with three contenders from the same team.

That last point is the story. Toyota has already sealed the manufacturers’ title, so there are no team orders forced by constructors’ maths. Evans, Pajari and Solberg are all Toyota drivers, and all three have a real route to the crown. For the background on how the calendar reached this point, our report on the WRC calendar shake-up and the BBC deal has the full sequence of events.

Here is the top of the drivers’ championship after Rally Chile, the 12th round. The “status” column shows who can still mathematically win the title with 35 points left.

Ogier, Fourmaux and Katsuta are all more than 35 points behind, so they’re out of the title fight. That doesn’t take them out of the rally, though. Any of them can win in Sardinia and take points away from the contenders, which matters a great deal when the gaps are this small. Ogier in particular is a former Sardinia winner and will be chasing victory rather than points. Our WRC 2026 power rankings cover the form picture behind these numbers, and the Rally Chile report explains how Chile tightened the order.

Under the current WRC system, a driver can score a maximum of 35 points at one rally: 25 for winning overall, up to 5 more from the Super Sunday classification, and up to 5 from the Power Stage. Points go down the order in each category, so a driver who finishes second overall still scores 18, plus whatever they collect on Sunday and on the Power Stage.

That structure matters. Evans doesn’t have to win in Sardinia. He has to limit the damage. His rivals, by contrast, need both a big score of their own and a poor result for him.

To put the numbers in context: if Evans finishes third, he scores 15 points plus whatever he collects on Sunday and the Power Stage. Pajari would then need to win and pick up at least a few bonus points to overtake him. If Evans finishes outside the top five or retires, the door swings wide open, and the title would most likely go to whichever of Pajari or Solberg finishes higher. The maths only gets complicated when Evans has a middling weekend, which is exactly the scenario his rivals are hoping for.

If two drivers finish level on points, the title is decided on countback, which looks first at the number of rally wins across the season. So a tie is possible in theory, but the more likely outcomes are straightforward: either Evans has a solid weekend and wins the title, or he hits trouble and one of his team-mates takes advantage.

Road position adds another layer. In WRC, the championship order sets the running order on Friday, and the leader goes first on a dusty gravel road, sweeping loose stones for the cars behind. In Sardinia that can cost real time on the opening day. It’s the single biggest reason the rally isn’t as simple as the maths suggests, and our guide to WRC strategy, tyres and tactics explains how road position shapes a gravel weekend.

Elfyn Evans — the favourite

Evans has been Toyota’s most consistent points-scorer all season, and consistency is exactly what this finale rewards. He has been close to a title before and knows how to manage a championship weekend. His biggest risk is road position: leading the championship means running first on Friday, and on Sardinia’s loose gravel that can cost time early. He can afford to lose some of it. What he can’t afford is a puncture, a mistake or a retirement. His Chile weekend, when a late puncture cost him a podium, is a reminder of how quickly that can happen.

Sami Pajari — the rising challenger

Pajari’s season has been the surprise of the year. He has turned into a steady, reliable scorer and got himself within 17 points of the lead. To win the title, though, he probably needs a victory, and he needs Evans to have a bad day. That’s a lot to ask of a young driver in his first championship fight. But Pajari has nothing to lose, and drivers in that position can be dangerous. Starting behind Evans on the road may also give him a small advantage on Friday.

Oliver Solberg — the man in form

Solberg won Rally Chile and is the driver with the most momentum, which is why he topped our power rankings. The trouble is arithmetic. At 21 points back, he has to beat both team-mates by clear margins and hope Evans falters. A maximum score in Sardinia is realistic for him on speed. Everything else is out of his hands. If Evans stumbles early, Solberg is the one most likely to punish it.

Will Toyota use team orders?

It’s the obvious question when three team-mates fight for one title. With the manufacturers’ crown already secured, Toyota has no points-based reason to favour anyone, and the team has generally let its drivers race in these situations. Where team orders could come into play is late in the rally: if one contender is clearly out of the running on Sunday, Toyota might ask that driver not to take points away from a team-mate who can still win. That would be a judgement call made on the day, not a plan set in advance. Our view is that Toyota will let the three race until the maths makes the decision for it.

There’s also the Pajari angle. He runs for Toyota’s second entry rather than the main factory team, although he drives the same car. That doesn’t change the rules of engagement, but it does mean a Pajari title would be a remarkable story: a driver from the team’s second outfit beating two factory team-mates to the crown.

Our prediction: Evans is the likeliest champion, perhaps by a clear margin, simply because the maths forgives him a lot. But Sardinia is one of the roughest rallies on the calendar, and it has a long history of punctures and mechanical failures. If there’s an upset, it will come from the road, not from the spreadsheet.

Rally Italia Sardegna runs from 1 to 4 October, based in Alghero in the north-west of the island. The route has 17 special stages covering 306.92 competitive kilometres, all on gravel. Sardinia’s roads are narrow, rocky and abrasive, and they are hard on tyres and suspension. In warm weather the dust and heat make it one of the most physically demanding events of the year for crews.

Sardinia has a reputation for catching out the favourites. The stages are often lined with rocks that can break a wheel or damage suspension in an instant, and the heat can take a toll on both crews and cars. Tyre management is a constant concern: push too hard on Friday and the tyres can be gone by the end of a loop. That makes the event a good fit for a points-leader who wants to drive tidily, and a risky one for anyone who needs to attack from the start.

Eleven Rally1 crews are entered, including all four Toyota drivers still running for the title or for pride, three Hyundais and three M-Sport Fords.

Ogier and Landais return as defending Sardinia winners. Hyundai brings gravel specialist Dani Sordo alongside Neuville and Fourmaux, which gives the Korean team a strong line-up to try to spoil Toyota’s party. Neuville, the 2024 champion, is out of the title picture after a difficult season. Our Thierry Neuville profile looks at his career and his tough title defence.

Hyundai has its own reasons to push. It has been beaten to the manufacturers’ title and hasn’t had a driver in this year’s title fight, so a Sardinia win would be the best way to end a disappointing season on a high. Fourmaux has been Hyundai’s most consistent driver in 2026, and Sordo has a long record on Sardinian gravel. Expect the Hyundais to be flat out from the first stage, with nothing to protect.

M-Sport’s three Fords are less likely to be in the victory fight, but their presence adds to the traffic on the stages and to the number of drivers able to take points off the contenders on the Power Stage. On a rally where one position can decide the title, every car in the field has a bearing on the outcome.

The clarification this week concerns Rally Saudi Arabia. It was originally scheduled as the 14th and final round in November. It will now go ahead as a national rally rather than as a round of the World Championship, so it has no bearing on the 2026 titles.

Officially, the decision came down to logistics. A fly-away WRC round involves freight, customs clearance and tight scheduling, and the promoter judged that the November date couldn’t give the rest of the season the certainty it needed. WRC Promoter CEO Eric Boullier framed the change in exactly those terms. The FIA said Saudi Arabia remained ready to host and that confidence in the organisers was unchanged, while Prince Khalid bin Sultan Al-Abdullah Al-Faisal stressed that “readiness was never the issue.”

Media coverage has also linked the decision to the wider uncertainty around Middle East events this autumn, which has affected Formula 1’s closing rounds and the Formula 2 finale. But the stated reason from the championship is logistics, and the Saudi organisers have been clear that their event was prepared.