For eleven rounds, Elfyn Evans played the percentages beautifully — opening roads, managing tyres, banking points while others crashed or gambled. Then came SS15 in Chile: a puncture, a roadside wheel change, two minutes gone, and a P2 that became P5. Solberg won by 16.6 seconds from team-mate Sébastien Ogier, took the Power Stage too, and suddenly the Welshman’s cushion looks wafer-thin with two of the roughest gravel rallies on the calendar still to come.

The math is simple and brutal. Evans leads on 230; Pajari has 213; Solberg 209. With up to 35 points available per round — 25 for the win, plus Super Sunday and Power Stage bonuses — all three can still be champion. If Evans leaves Alghero more than 35 points clear of his nearest rival, he seals the title with a round to spare. Anything less, and the championship goes down to Rally Saudi Arabia in November.

Ogier, fourth on 171, is mathematically alive but realistically out — 59 points back with 70 available, and the nine-time champion’s part-season was never about the title anyway. His Chile runner-up was his 120th career WRC podium, drawing him level with Sébastien Loeb’s all-time mark. The real fight is the top three — and all three know Sardinia’s rocks could decide it either way.

Pajari is the form driver of the summer. Three consecutive victories — Estonia, Finland and Paraguay — transformed the Finn from dark horse to Evans’ closest challenger, and even a muted fourth in Chile gained him three points on the leader. His confidence on fast gravel is absolute right now, and Sardinia’s flowing second-pass stages suit him.

Solberg, meanwhile, has the season’s highest peaks. Monte Carlo in January, then nothing for eleven rounds — then a Chile weekend he called “perfect,” leading every stage bar one and sealing it with Power Stage honours. The 24-year-old’s raw speed is no longer in question; his task is proving the troughs are behind him.

Evans’ form line needs context: the “5th” in Chile was a puncture, not a pace problem — he was second on the road and second on the Power Stage. But perception matters in a title fight, and the narrative has shifted from “Evans the metronome” to “Evans the vulnerable.” Hyundai’s hopes rest on Fourmaux after Neuville’s Saturday roll in Chile; the Frenchman has been the Korean team’s rock all year.

The rally returns to Alghero after a year based in Olbia — the Coral Coast city that hosted the event’s first WRC edition back in 2004, and whose ancient bastions provide one of the championship’s most distinctive podium backdrops. The route mixes returning classics with fresh tests: Friday’s loop runs through Gallura and Monte Acuto; Saturday is based around Monte Acuto with two passes of the brand-new Solorché stage; Sunday brings the abrasive Osilo–Tergu and the coastal Sassari–Argentiera Power Stage overlooking the Mediterranean.

Don’t let the scenery fool you. Sardinia’s narrow roads snake through rough terrain with constant rhythm changes, blind crests and almost no run-off — and when the sun is out, the rock-hard base destroys tyres and suspensions alike. The island has one of the highest attrition rates of the season: this is where Micky’s Jump launches cars over the famous Lerno crest, and where the 2024 edition produced the joint-closest finish in WRC history, Ott Tänak beating Ogier by two-tenths of a second.

Beyond the Toyota quartet, Adrien Fourmaux leads Hyundai’s charge fresh from his Chile podium — the 13th of his career — and the i20 N Rally1 has a strong Sardinia pedigree. Thierry Neuville needs a bounce-back after his Chile roll, while team-mate Esapekka Lappi faces what could be his final WRC start. At M-Sport Ford, Josh McErlean and Jon Armstrong continue their rookie educations — Armstrong will hope for a cleaner run after his SS8 roll in Chile, one of several incidents in a bruising weekend covered in our report on the frightening Friday that overshadowed Rally Chile.

Friday is the longest leg and the likely pivot of the rally: six stages and 120.90km with only a midday service, on roads that cut up badly on the second pass. Saturday brings the new Solorché test — a genuine unknown in the notes — before Sunday’s short, sharp finale where the Power Stage’s coastal blast could be worth five championship-defining bonus points. Every stage is live on Rally.TV with onboard cameras.