This is the 36th running of the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. However, 2026 adds layers that previous editions didn’t carry. First, it is the final road course of the entire Cup Series season. With the Chicago Street Course removed from the 2026 calendar, Sonoma closes out the road-course chapter completely. Therefore, road-course specialists know this is their last opportunity to exploit their advantage before the season pivots entirely to ovals.

Second, this race opens the 2026 In-Season Challenge — a 32-driver bracket tournament with Tyler Reddick seeded No. 1. Round 1 matchups are determined by regular-season standings, and several fascinating head-to-head battles unfold this Sunday on the same track as the main race. The In-Season Challenge results don’t affect Cup Series points, but they do influence momentum and attention. Furthermore, bracket position at Sonoma shapes how the tournament progresses over the next several rounds. Full 2026 NASCAR Cup Series points standings.

The 2026 NASCAR season also introduced a new Chase format, reverting to the structure used from 2004 to 2013. The top 16 drivers in points after Race 26 advance to the Chase — with no “win-and-you’re-in” rule, which fundamentally changes how bubble drivers approach every remaining race. Consequently, points accumulation at Sonoma carries genuine urgency for the 12th through 20th-placed drivers. How NASCAR’s Chase playoff scoring system works.

The NASCAR Sonoma weekend runs across three days, with two additional support series joining the Cup Series. The ARCA Menards Series West opens Friday, followed by the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series on Saturday, and the main event on Sunday. Here is every session with confirmed times and broadcast information.

Sonoma Raceway sits on the landform known as Sears Point in the southern Sonoma Mountains of California. The track runs 1.99 miles per lap with 12 corners and 160 feet of total elevation change — meaning drivers are constantly climbing and descending while managing traction on a surface that changes character with temperature and shade. This is emphatically not a stock car oval. The technique required here is entirely different from anything drivers face across the other 35 rounds of the season.

Furthermore, the 2026 Cup Series brought a horsepower increase to 750 HP at tracks under 1.5 miles and road courses (up from 670). Therefore, the cars are more powerful at Sonoma in 2026 than they’ve ever been. Moreover, that increase makes braking discipline even more critical, because the added power amplifies the consequences of arriving too hot at the heavy braking zones. How downforce works — and why it matters at a hilly road course like Sonoma.

The Next Tier — Blaney, McDowell, Gibbs, Buescher

Ryan Blaney at +1400 has been underrated here. He has pace and experience, and Sonoma suits his smooth driving style. Michael McDowell (+1500) hasn’t finished worse than seventh in the last four Sonoma Raceway races — that’s a quietly remarkable record that gets little attention. Ty Gibbs (+2000) qualifies exceptionally well at Sonoma, averaging a 7.3 start position in three Cup tries, even if race pace hasn’t matched qualifying speed. Chris Buescher (+2200) has been one of 2026’s most consistent performers and nudged into the power rankings top five after San Diego. Who won the last NASCAR race? Latest results.

Chase Elliott (+3500) deserves mention even at those longer odds. He is NASCAR’s winningest active driver on road courses with seven victories. However, none have come in the NextGen era, and his last two road-course results included consecutive finishes outside the top ten. Something has shifted in how the No. 9 team connects with modern road course setups. The talent is clearly present — therefore, a reset could happen at any time. However, the recent form doesn’t support short odds. Where is NASCAR racing this weekend — full guide.

The 2026 NASCAR Chase format change — reverting to the 2004–2013 structure — fundamentally changed how bubble drama plays out. There is no “win-and-you’re-in” rule this season. Consequently, a driver cannot secure their playoff spot with a single victory. Instead, the top 16 in points after Race 26 advance. Therefore, every point at Sonoma has a direct and calculable value for the drivers currently fighting inside and outside that cut line. Here is the bubble picture entering this weekend.

The van Gisbergen bubble situation is the most dramatic storyline of the weekend. He enters Sonoma as the -150 race favourite — the overwhelming pick to win — while simultaneously sitting three points below the provisional Chase cutline at 17th in the standings. Furthermore, his San Diego 38th-place finish while leading was a catastrophic points swing that pushed him into the danger zone. Therefore, Sunday is the clearest possible example of a driver needing both the win and the points simultaneously. A dominant Sonoma victory would resolve both problems in one afternoon. But if he has another mechanical issue or accident, the Chase picture becomes very worrying indeed for a driver of his road-course calibre.

Erik Jones is a quieter but equally interesting bubble story. The Legacy Motor Club driver had looked like an afterthought earlier in 2026, but a surge in recent weeks has pushed him to just ten points above the cut. Furthermore, Sonoma has historically been a “survivable” track for Jones — his two top tens and 19.1 average finish there won’t win the race, but they protect points. In 2026’s no-win-and-in format, survival is points. Therefore, Jones entering Turn 1 on Sunday needs a clean, top-15 result more than he needs a heroic move for the win. What time does the NASCAR race start today?

The betting board at Sonoma is always worth scrutinising beyond the top three names. Road courses have produced more surprise winners in the Cup Series than any other track type in recent years — precisely because the driving style required is so different from the oval majority that regularly produces the same names at the top of the results. Several drivers this weekend represent genuine value beyond their odds.

AJ Allmendinger — The Perennial Threat

Allmendinger at +2200 is one of the most reliable road-course performers the Cup Series has ever produced. He spent years winning road-course races in different series when the Cup schedule rarely visited them, and he has carried that ability into each return visit. He finished inside the top five at San Diego last week, rounding out a top five that included Bubba Wallace and Kyle Larson. Furthermore, his experience on technical road courses — particularly ones with significant elevation change — gives him a textbook knowledge of how to manage tyre life through a long stint. Consequently, if the race produces a late-race caution that bunches the field, Allmendinger is exactly the kind of driver who capitalises.

Michael McDowell — The Quiet Sonoma Specialist

McDowell (+1500) is not a household name in championship conversations. However, his Sonoma record speaks for itself: he hasn’t finished worse than seventh in his last four visits. That level of consistency at a specific track is not a coincidence. Moreover, the Spire Motorsports Chevrolet has shown genuine road-course competitiveness in 2026, and McDowell’s ability to manage a long race — avoiding incidents and protecting position — suits Sonoma’s risk-heavy format. Therefore, at +1500, he represents genuinely interesting value for a driver who is demonstrably faster around this specific 1.99-mile road course than his season-long results suggest. How car racing works — strategy, positioning and patience explained.

Christopher Bell — Underrated Approach

Bell at +4500 seems long, but he is a legitimate road-course threat who tends to be undervalued when bigger names are on the same grid. His qualifying pace is strong, and he has shown the patience to run long stints without destroying his tyres. However, Sonoma hasn’t produced his best results, and the odds reflect that historical context rather than his pure road-course ability. In an event where the favourite has a crash history (San Diego) and the field is genuinely wide open beyond van Gisbergen and Larson, Bell at those odds is worth considering for fans who like finding value beyond the top of the board.

Bubba Wallace — Post-San Diego Momentum

Wallace finished second at San Diego and has been quietly improving at road courses throughout 2026. His 23XI Racing team has one of the stronger road-course setups in the current field, benefiting from the organisation’s analytical approach to circuit-specific setups. Furthermore, a second place at the previous race creates genuine confidence heading into Sonoma. However, his average Sonoma finish doesn’t match this momentum, so he carries a higher risk premium than his current form might suggest. Latest NASCAR Cup race winner and results.

Van Gisbergen’s 2025 Sonoma dominance (97 of 110 laps led, pole, dominant margin) was one of the most complete road-course performances in recent Cup Series history. However, the question every analyst has to ask before writing him in as the automatic winner is whether San Diego changes the mental calculus. He is three points below the Chase cut. He needs a clean race as much as a fast one. That dual pressure — leading a race while managing race-ending risk — is the kind of situation where even the most dominant driver can make unusual calls. Nevertheless, the market says -150, and the market is usually right about van Gisbergen at a road course.

Our prediction: Van Gisbergen wins, but it is closer than 2025. Larson challenges for the lead in the first stint and again in the final stage. McDowell sneaks to a top five by running a calculated race. The bubble drama resolves with van Gisbergen both winning and jumping inside the top 16 in the standings — making Sunday a perfect afternoon for Trackhouse Racing in wine country.

Win Probability — Visual Breakdown