Rally del Paraguay 2026 Preview:
Championship Contenders, Route Guide & Predictions
The second WRC visit to Paraguay arrives with Elfyn Evans leading the championship, Sami Pajari riding a two-rally winning streak, and defending winner Sébastien Ogier returning to the red-earth stages of Itapúa. The expanded 22-stage route is the longest competitive rally on the 2026 calendar.
Rally del Paraguay 2026 preview: the FIA World Rally Championship returns to South America for Round 11 of 14 from August 27–30. The rally is based in Encarnación in the Itapúa Department and uses 22 gravel stages covering 358.99 kilometres of competitive distance. WRC describes the route as a blend of smooth red-earth roads, fast sections, technical areas and changing grip where repeated passes can create deep ruts.
The championship arrives with Elfyn Evans leading on 201 points, Sami Pajari second on 171, Takamoto Katsuta third on 160, Oliver Solberg fourth on 156 and Sébastien Ogier fifth on 139. Toyota holds 514 manufacturers’ points to Hyundai’s 340, and the Japanese manufacturer can secure a sixth consecutive manufacturers’ crown in Paraguay if it extends its advantage by at least six points.
Why Rally del Paraguay 2026 Could Be a Championship-Turning Event
Rally del Paraguay is still a young event, but it has already proved it can punish the assumptions made before the first car leaves the line. The inaugural 2025 running produced a victory for Sébastien Ogier after the Frenchman recovered from nearly 40 seconds lost to a tire deflation on Friday. He then beat Elfyn Evans to the win and finished the weekend only nine points away from Evans in the championship.
The 2026 edition is larger. WRC lists 22 stages and 358.99 competitive kilometres, while the 2025 rally had 19 stages and roughly 335 kilometres. The event’s official materials describe the 2026 route as the longest competitive rally on the calendar, which means the teams face a larger reliability and road-position problem before the title contenders even reach the final day.
It is also a crucial moment in the championship. Evans leads the standings, but Sami Pajari’s back-to-back victories in Estonia and Finland have turned him into the immediate title threat. Pajari has moved to 171 points, 30 behind Evans, and Toyota’s top five in the drivers’ standings means the manufacturer has multiple strategic assets on the same road.
There are fewer layers of historical data here than at established WRC venues. The official WRC route description emphasizes fast red-earth gravel, changing grip, deepening ruts and possible dust or rain. That makes pace notes, road position and adapting to the surface at speed more important than simply copying last year’s setup.
A longer rally changes the risk calculation
A 358.99-kilometre competitive distance means a small problem can become expensive. A puncture is not just the time spent changing or managing the tire. It can alter tire allocation, position, road order and the driver’s confidence for the next loop.
That is why the best Paraguay strategy is unlikely to be the most aggressive one on Friday morning. The crews have to learn the surface first. The second pass may be faster because pace notes are more certain, but it can also be more dangerous because deep ruts, loose gravel and broken edges appear after the first field has passed.
Why Toyota enters as the benchmark
Toyota has won 8 of the first 10 2026 rounds according to current manufacturer information and leads Hyundai by 174 points. The team also has all five of its Rally1 drivers inside the top five of the drivers’ standings.
That gives Toyota a strategic luxury. Evans can manage the championship, Pajari can attack, Katsuta can score manufacturer points, Solberg can push for another podium and Ogier can use his fifth road position to chase another Paraguay victory. Hyundai cannot control the fight in the same way; it needs its three cars to create a points swing against Toyota.
2026 WRC Championship Standings Before Paraguay
| Pos. | Driver / Co-driver | Manufacturer | Points | Gap | Paraguay objective |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elfyn Evans / Scott Martin | Toyota | 201 | — | Protect the lead |
| 2 | Sami Pajari / Marko Salminen | Toyota | 171 | -30 | Extend winning streak |
| 3 | Takamoto Katsuta / Aaron Johnston | Toyota | 160 | -41 | Rebuild after Finland |
| 4 | Oliver Solberg / Elliott Edmondson | Toyota | 156 | -45 | Keep podium momentum |
| 5 | Sébastien Ogier / Vincent Landais | Toyota | 139 | -62 | Defend 2025 victory |
| 6 | Adrien Fourmaux / Alexandre Coria | Hyundai | 129 | -72 | Challenge Toyota |
| 7 | Thierry Neuville / Martijn Wydaeghe | Hyundai | 125 | -76 | Convert pace into points |
| 8 | Esapekka Lappi / Enni Mälkönen | Hyundai | 25 | -176 | Support manufacturer fight |
Those standings come directly from the FIA’s 2026 table after Round 10. Evans has 201 points, Pajari 171, Katsuta 160, Solberg 156 and Ogier 139. Hyundai’s Neuville and Fourmaux sit sixth and seventh, while Toyota’s manufacturer total stands at 514 versus Hyundai’s 340.
Elfyn Evans: the title leader under the most unusual pressure
Evans has not needed to win every rally to lead the 2026 championship. His strength has been turning difficult weekends into valuable points. That trait matters in Paraguay because he will open the road and therefore face the worst version of the loose gravel surface on the first loop.
Evans himself highlighted the problem in Toyota’s official preview. He said the first Paraguay event looked straightforward on paper, but the polished clay surface and changing grip levels made it much harder. He also noted that rain on the final morning in 2025 created almost no grip.
For a championship leader, the correct goal is not to win Friday at all costs. It is to remain close enough that the road position becomes less damaging as the weekend progresses.
Sami Pajari: the hottest driver in the WRC right now
Pajari arrives after consecutive wins in Estonia and Finland. His Finland victory was especially significant: he won his home event by 26.7 seconds over Toyota teammate Oliver Solberg, while Evans completed the podium.
He now has 171 points and sits only 30 behind Evans. The problem is that momentum can make a rally driver too aggressive. Paraguay is not Estonia. The red clay can look smooth and inviting before becoming deeply rutted and abrasive on the second pass.
Takamoto Katsuta: a clean reset
Katsuta is third on 160 points, but his Finland weekend ended with a crash on the final Wolf Power Stage after he went wide to avoid a rock and hit a tree. Toyota said the incident was his mistake and that he needed to reset before the next rally.
Paraguay is exactly the kind of rally where a calm reset matters. Katsuta does not need to chase the lead in every loop. He needs a clean finish and a large manufacturer contribution.
Oliver Solberg: the four-point gap to Katsuta
Solberg is fourth on 156 and only four points behind Katsuta. He finished second in Finland and won Super Sunday, showing that his pace on high-speed gravel is now genuine title-level performance.
Paraguay’s narrower, more variable surface asks a different question: can Solberg carry that speed when the road becomes unpredictable? If he can, he is a legitimate rally-win contender, not simply a podium threat.
Sébastien Ogier: the defending winner
Ogier won the inaugural Rally del Paraguay in 2025, recovering from a tire deflation that cost him nearly 40 seconds before fighting back to beat Evans and Thierry Neuville.
That experience is worth more than the usual one-year learning curve. Ogier knows where the road can change, where the clay becomes polished, and how the final-day weather can alter the Power Stage. His fifth road position is also strategically attractive because it gives him less cleaning duty than Evans while remaining inside the top priority group.
Rally del Paraguay 2026 Route Guide
The official 2026 route is based around Encarnación and the wider Itapúa Department. WRC lists 22 stages and 358.99 kilometres of competitive distance, all on gravel. The event is longer than the 2025 edition and is designed to combine fast red-earth roads with technical sections through vegetation, variable grip and significant second-pass degradation.
Friday: the first real test of road position
Friday is the first day where the new surface becomes a championship variable. The important question is not simply who is fastest. It is who understands how much the road is changing between the first and second pass.
On soft gravel, the first car can sweep loose material from the racing line, sometimes exposing harder and faster underlying material while leaving the road cleaner for later runners. But Paraguay is not a uniform surface. The official WRC description warns that deep ruts can develop on second passes, and sudden surface changes can punish a driver who commits to a line that looked correct one pass earlier.
Saturday: the longest and most technical pressure point
Saturday is where the rally begins to separate the drivers who can repeat their pace from those who found one fast loop. The route moves through more technical sections and adds the accumulated effect of tire wear, suspension loads and the need to keep accurate pace notes despite changing road profiles.
The route presentation describes 22 stages overall, with a major new emphasis on long gravel stages and a street-side super special. The event’s official information specifically highlights the blend of high-speed stages and tricky technical sections, so the Saturday strategy should prioritize consistency rather than hero driving.
Sunday: points before glory, then the Power Stage
Sunday becomes a separate strategy problem. With the championship positions already taking shape, drivers who have a secure podium can protect their points while the leaders behind them chase the Power Stage.
The Wolf Power Stage is important because the WRC points system awards additional Sunday and Power Stage points to the strongest finishers. A driver who has already secured a strong overall position may therefore choose between maximizing the rally result and attacking for bonus points.
The road’s red clay is the real “character” of Paraguay
The defining surface feature is not just gravel. It is the way the red clay changes. Toyota’s Evans described the 2025 rally as more difficult than it appeared from the route maps because the polished clay created changing grip levels. When rain arrived on the final morning, grip almost disappeared.
That makes weather timing critical. A dry rally rewards precision and commitment. A wet rally rewards adaptability and a driver who can recognize the loss of grip before the car becomes a passenger.
| Route feature | Why it matters | Likely strategic effect |
|---|---|---|
| Fast red-earth gravel | High-speed rhythm and commitment | Rewards stable high-speed balance |
| Second-pass ruts | Road changes after the first loop | More braking and line discipline |
| Long stages | Greater tire and mechanical exposure | Conservative puncture management |
| Dense vegetation | Limited visual reference | Precise pace notes become critical |
| Dust | Reduced visibility in dry conditions | Road order and spacing matter |
| Rain | Clay can lose grip dramatically | Setup and tire decisions become decisive |
Rally del Paraguay 2026 Championship Contenders
Elfyn Evans
The championship leader. His best weapon is the ability to turn bad weekends into points.
Sami Pajari
Two consecutive WRC wins have transformed him from prospect into title threat.
Takamoto Katsuta
Third in the standings and hungry for a clean rebound after Finland’s late crash.
Oliver Solberg
Second at Finland and within four points of Katsuta in the championship.
Sébastien Ogier
2025 Paraguay winner with a proven understanding of the red-earth event.
Adrien Fourmaux
Hyundai’s best hope for a direct Toyota fight in a rally where reliability matters.
Elfyn Evans: the driver with the most to lose
Evans is the championship leader, so Paraguay’s road order is a strategic disadvantage and a championship test at the same time. He will have to open the road on a gravel surface that can be cleaned significantly by following cars.
He also enters after a complicated Rally Finland, where he finished third behind Pajari and Solberg. The result still increased his championship advantage to 30 points.
The best version of Evans in Paraguay will not necessarily look spectacular. It will look accurate. He needs to minimize the time lost to sweeping, protect the tires and avoid punctures. If he reaches Saturday night within 10–15 seconds of the lead, his road position improves enough on Sunday that he can attack for the overall win.
Sami Pajari: the obvious pace favorite
Two wins in a row change the psychology of a championship. Pajari has already won on high-speed gravel in Estonia and then doubled up at home in Finland. Toyota’s official preview describes his two wins as back-to-back breakthroughs and makes clear that he is now Evans’ nearest title challenger.
Paraguay is different, though. Pajari will need to translate the confidence of Finland into a red-clay rally with less historical reference and more road-surface volatility.
Ogier: the strongest route-specific pick
If the question is simply “Who has already won this rally?” the answer is Ogier. He won the inaugural event and recovered from a nearly 40-second tire problem to beat Evans.
His 2026 championship total is lower because he is on a partial programme, but that makes him dangerous. His weekend can be optimized almost entirely around the win, while Evans and Pajari have to think about championship points.
Oliver Solberg: the breakout candidate
Solberg’s second place in Finland and Super Sunday win showed that his Rally1 pace is becoming harder to dismiss. He is fourth in the championship with 156 points and only four behind Katsuta.
Paraguay is another opportunity to prove that the speed translates across different gravel characteristics. A podium would place him directly into the championship conversation and put serious pressure on Katsuta.
Takamoto Katsuta: the need for a clean weekend
Katsuta is third on 160 points, but the final-stage accident in Finland means he needs a calm reset. Toyota’s own report said the crash was his mistake after he tried to avoid a rock and ran wide on loose gravel.
Paraguay is not a rally to repair confidence by driving more aggressively. Katsuta’s smart strategy is to build pace across the loops and keep the car intact for the final day.
Hyundai: why Fourmaux and Neuville matter
Hyundai’s Fourmaux and Neuville are sixth and seventh in the drivers’ standings with 129 and 125 points. They are far enough behind Evans that neither is a realistic favorite for the overall championship at this stage, but they can take points directly away from Toyota’s title contenders.
Hyundai’s best Paraguay strategy is therefore team-oriented: run close to Toyota on Friday, exploit the second-pass grip changes, and make the rally more difficult for the five Toyota drivers without damaging its own points haul.
Rally del Paraguay 2026 Predictions
The prediction is unusually difficult because the rally has only one previous WRC edition and the 2026 route has expanded. That increases the value of conservative judgment: start from the known evidence, then adjust for road order, form and route changes.
Ogier is the defending winner, knows the broad character of the event, starts fifth in the Toyota Rally1 order and does not carry the same championship-leading road-sweeping burden as Evans. His experience also makes him the safest prediction for a rally where adapting to changing grip is likely to matter more than outright qualifying speed.
Why Ogier is the strongest winner pick
Ogier’s 2025 win was not easy. He lost nearly 40 seconds to a tire deflation, recovered, and then converted the final stages into a victory. That is precisely the kind of rally profile that often suits a veteran: mistakes happen, but he understands how much speed must be recovered and when to stop taking unnecessary risk.
His main disadvantage is that Pajari enters with stronger recent momentum and Evans has the points lead. If Toyota cars dominate the front, internal positioning could become more important than raw speed.
Prediction: Sami Pajari on the podium
Pajari’s two-rally winning run is impossible to ignore. He has proven he can maintain performance over fast gravel, and Paraguay’s high-speed sections should not scare him. The question is whether the red-clay grip profile and ruts create enough variation to expose his relative lack of experience compared with Ogier.
Prediction: Elfyn Evans finishes inside the top three
Evans’ best strategic asset is consistency. Even if he loses time cleaning the road, he does not need to win every stage. A controlled podium would protect his lead and put pressure back on Pajari to take risks later in the season.
Prediction: Oliver Solberg challenges for the top three
Solberg is the wild card. His Finland performance suggests the speed is real, and his 156 points leave him only four behind Katsuta. If he avoids the mistakes that can occur on changing red gravel, a first podium in Paraguay would make the championship standings much more interesting.
Projected top five
| Prediction | Driver | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sébastien Ogier | Defending winner + route experience |
| 2 | Sami Pajari | Back-to-back wins + current gravel pace |
| 3 | Elfyn Evans | Championship consistency + Toyota strength |
| 4 | Oliver Solberg | Fast recent form + low standings pressure |
| 5 | Takamoto Katsuta | Need for clean redemption weekend |
What could break the prediction?
- Heavy rain: Toyota’s road-order disadvantage could suddenly become less severe, or the rally could become a lottery.
- Ruts: a deep rut in a high-speed braking zone can create a puncture or suspension problem that no prediction can account for.
- Mechanical reliability: 358.99 competitive kilometres gives components more time to fail.
- Road position: Evans opening the road means a clean Friday is already a success; a dry, loose surface could make him vulnerable.
Who is the championship favorite?
That answer is still Evans. The prediction of an Ogier rally win does not change the title projection. Evans has 201 points, a 30-point lead over Pajari and a five-car Toyota structure around him.
If Evans finishes third and Pajari wins, the gap would shrink but the leader would still control the championship. If Evans finishes outside the points and Pajari wins, the championship becomes a very different fight with only three rallies remaining after Paraguay.
What a Toyota sixth straight manufacturers’ title would mean
Toyota enters Paraguay with 514 manufacturers’ points, 174 ahead of Hyundai’s 340. The team can clinch if it extends the advantage by at least six points during the rally.
That is a remarkable cushion. Toyota can therefore run two different strategies inside the same team: Evans and Pajari fight for the drivers’ crown, while Katsuta, Solberg and Ogier help secure the manufacturer result by bringing cars home and scoring stage bonuses.
What Makes Rally del Paraguay 2026 Different From the Rest of the WRC Calendar?
Paraguay’s biggest advantage as a rally is that drivers cannot fake familiarity. Finland has decades of data. Portugal has known tire and road behavior. Greece has an established survival formula. Paraguay is still developing its identity.
The official WRC description says the event combines high-speed stages with technical sections and changeable grip. It also warns that the soft gravel can cut up quickly, while fine dust can reduce visibility and rain can change the surface quickly.
That makes pace notes unusually important. A corner that looked clean during recce may have a different braking surface when the Rally1 cars arrive. A jump can move gravel onto the landing. A rut can deepen after the first pass. The driver has to read what the road is becoming, not only what it was during reconnaissance.
Why local knowledge still matters
The rally has a deep local culture through the CODASUR championship, and 29 Paraguayan crews are entered in 2026. The organizers have also expanded the field to 60 crews representing 22 countries.
That local depth matters because Paraguay’s roads are not an artificial racing environment. The event is built around real gravel-road culture in Itapúa, and local crews bring an understanding of the landscape, weather and road behavior that international drivers cannot immediately recreate.
The Encarnación base adds another layer
Encarnación sits on the Paraná River near the Argentine border and serves as the rally’s service base. WRC highlights the city as one of the country’s scenic locations and notes that Paraguay is only the third South American nation to host a modern WRC round after Argentina and Chile.
For U.S. fans, the rally is a chance to see the championship outside Europe in a very different visual environment. But for the teams, the significance is competitive: South American gravel is now part of the championship’s title run-in, with Chile following Paraguay almost immediately.
Rally del Paraguay 2026 Schedule and How to Watch
The official event window is Thursday, August 27 through Sunday, August 30. WRC lists the rally as Round 11 of the 2026 championship and says every stage will be live and on demand on Rally.TV. Exact stage start times vary by day and should be checked against the official live itinerary before watching.
| Rally phase | Paraguay date | U.S. ET guidance | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakedown / opening | Thu. Aug. 27 | Check live timetable | Surface reference and car balance |
| Day 1 | Fri. Aug. 28 | Early morning into midday | Road order and first-pass pace |
| Day 2 | Sat. Aug. 29 | Morning into afternoon | Ruts, tire wear and championship separation |
| Final day | Sun. Aug. 30 | Morning into early afternoon | Podium, Super Sunday and Power Stage |
The smart way for U.S. viewers to follow Paraguay
Because Paraguay runs on a South American schedule and the stage times can move through the day, U.S. viewers should use WRC’s official live centre for current times rather than rely on a generic one-time TV listing. WRC confirms that every stage is available live and on demand on Rally.TV.
The best viewing windows are the opening Friday loop, the longest Saturday afternoon sequence and Sunday’s final loop. Those are the moments when road degradation, championship pressure and the Power Stage can produce the biggest changes.
Related WRC & Motorsport Reading
Frequently Asked Questions
Conclusion: Paraguay Could Decide Who Controls the Final Four Rallies
The 2026 title fight arrives at its most unpredictable gravel stop
Rally del Paraguay 2026 is a rare WRC event where the route itself is a major character. The rally is only in its second WRC edition, yet the organizers have already expanded it to 22 stages and 358.99 competitive kilometres. The roads around Encarnación combine red clay, fast sections, technical vegetation-lined roads and deepening ruts.
That combination creates a fascinating championship problem. Elfyn Evans leads the standings with 201 points, but Sami Pajari is only 30 points behind after winning Estonia and Finland. Takamoto Katsuta and Oliver Solberg are separated by just four points, while Sébastien Ogier is still only 62 behind despite running a part-time programme.
Ogier is the obvious route-specific pick. He won the 2025 inaugural event after recovering from a tire problem and then beating Evans in the closing stages. Evans is the safest championship pick because his priority is points, not necessarily the fastest possible Friday time. Pajari is the momentum pick after consecutive victories. Solberg is the breakout candidate after his Finland podium. Katsuta is the driver most in need of a clean rebound.
Toyota’s manufacturer advantage is enormous: 514 points to Hyundai’s 340, with a possible sixth consecutive constructors’ crown on the line if the gap grows by at least six points.
Prediction: Sébastien Ogier to win Rally del Paraguay 2026, Sami Pajari second and Elfyn Evans third. The forecast is based on the 2025 result, current form, road-order dynamics and the specific character of Paraguay’s red-earth stages. It is a prediction, not a published result.
The bigger story may be the championship points rather than the winner. Paraguay is followed by Chile, Italy and Saudi Arabia. A driver who leaves Encarnación with a 20-point swing can enter those final three rallies with an entirely different championship strategy. That is why this rally matters so much: the red earth is not simply another surface. It may be the point where the 2026 title fight changes shape.
Sources & Data Notes
This is a pre-race 2026 Rally del Paraguay preview prepared on August 22, 2026. Championship standings are taken from the FIA 2026 WRC standings after Round 10. Route and event facts are based primarily on WRC’s official event page and Toyota Gazoo Racing’s 2026 Paraguay preview. Predictions are clearly identified as analysis rather than published results.
- WRC — ueno Rally del Paraguay 2026 official event page
- FIA — 2026 World Rally Championship standings
- Toyota Gazoo Racing — 2026 Rally del Paraguay preview
- Rally del Paraguay — official 2026 entry list announcement
- WRC — Sébastien Ogier wins inaugural Rally del Paraguay 2025
- Toyota Gazoo Racing — 2025 Rally del Paraguay report
- WRC — 2025 Paraguay route and event introduction
- WRC — Rally Finland 2026 event context
- Rally del Paraguay — 2026 Spanish entry-list announcement
- ABC Color — 60 crews for Rally del Paraguay 2026
The article contains three real rally-related images: a 2025 Ogier Rally del Paraguay action frame, a 2026 Paraguay route-presentation frame, and a 2026 Rally del Paraguay launch-event frame. Image credits and usage rights remain with their original publishers/platforms; check licensing before commercial publication.
