
Drivers Most Likely to Win the 2026
U.S. Nationals: Favorites by Class
The Big Go returns to Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park September 2β7, carrying points-and-a-half weight in every professional class. Here’s who the current standings say is most likely to leave Indy with a Wally.

Drivers Most Likely to Win
the 2026 U.S. Nationals
Who the current points standings favor heading into Indy’s points-and-a-half weekend.
Indianapolis decides more than just a trophy. The 72nd Cornwell Quality Tools NHRA U.S. Nationals runs September 2β7 at Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park, and in NHRA’s 75th anniversary season, the points-and-a-half format makes it the single heaviest weekend before the Countdown to the Championship begins.
Based on the standings through Thunder Valley β the ninth of 20 races on the 2026 Mission Foods Drag Racing Series calendar β these are the drivers in the strongest position to win at the Big Go, broken down class by class, with the dark horses worth watching along the way.
The Favorites at a Glance
Every class enters Indianapolis with a points leader under genuine pressure. None of the four current leaders has a comfortable cushion, which is exactly what makes the points-and-a-half stakes at the Big Go so consequential heading into the Countdown reset.
At the U.S. Nationals, every round win in a professional class is worth 30 points instead of the usual 20 β a points-and-a-half structure unique to this event. With the regular season title and Countdown seeding both decided shortly after Indy, a strong run here carries more weight than almost anywhere else on the calendar.
Top Fuel: Who’s Most Likely to Win at Indy
Shawn Langdon arrives at Indianapolis as the most consistent driver in Top Fuel this season. His 920 points and seven final-round appearances through nine races represent the steadiest campaign in the class, and his 114-point cushion over reigning world champion Doug Kalitta is the largest of any points leader across all four professional categories.

| Pos | Driver | Points | 2026 Wins | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shawn Langdon | 920 | 2 | Leader |
| 2 | Doug Kalitta | 806 | 1 | -114 |
| 3 | Leah Pruett | 693 | 1 | -227 |
| 4 | Tony Stewart | 533 | 1 | -387 |
| 5 | Antron Brown | 517 | 1 | -403 |
However, points position and Indianapolis form don’t always align. Doug Kalitta remains the most credentialed active driver in the field β a reigning world champion who has built his 2026 season around peaking late, and Kalitta has historically been one of the sport’s sharpest performers when the points-and-a-half weight is on the table. His 806 points and a single Mission #2Fast2Tasty win this season undersell how dangerous his Mac Tools dragster has looked in qualifying trim.
Antron Brown’s first win of the season came at Thunder Valley, and it came against Langdon directly. If that form holds into late August, the four-time champion becomes the contender nobody wants to see across the staging lanes at Indy.
Tony Stewart and Antron Brown both enter the conversation as momentum plays rather than points plays. Stewart, in his rookie Top Fuel season at the wheel for Elite Motorsports, has already reached a final round and shown race-winning pace at Pomona. Brown, meanwhile, snapped a years-long Bristol drought with his first win of 2026 at Thunder Valley β a confidence-building result that came directly at Langdon’s expense in a side-by-side final. For more on how Top Fuel’s nitromethane engines generate their power, see our explainer on how far NHRA Top Fuel cars actually race and how fast NHRA cars go.
Funny Car: Capps’ Lead Is Real, But So Is Hagan’s Heat
Ron Capps holds the Funny Car points lead at 691, just 24 points clear of Matt Hagan. Capps has been recognized this season as one of only three active inductees into Bristol Dragway’s Legends of Thunder Valley, a reflection of consistency that has carried across nearly two decades in the class. Therefore, Capps doesn’t need a dominant weekend at Indy β he needs a clean one.
Hagan, however, is the driver every Funny Car contender is watching most closely right now. His Thunder Valley victory was his second of the season and his 1,000th career Funny Car start milestone came earlier this year at Pomona, where he doubled up with team owner Tony Stewart’s Top Fuel win. Hagan’s path to that Bristol trophy ran directly through reigning two-time champion Austin Prock, which says as much about his current form as the win itself.
| Pos | Driver | Points | 2026 Wins | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ron Capps | 691 | 1 | Leader |
| 2 | Matt Hagan | 667 | 2 | -24 |
| 3 | J.R. Todd | 634 | 0 | -57 |
| 4 | Jordan Vandergriff | 619 | 1 | -72 |
| 5 | Jack Beckman | 589 | 0 | -102 |
“I’m just that old plow horse that goes out there and gets it done. I’m not pretty like Leah and famous like Tommy, but… you go out there and you look at the end of the day and the field’s plowed.” β Matt Hagan, after his Thunder Valley win
Behind the top two, Jordan Vandergriff has been the season’s breakout story for John Force Racing, and J.R. Todd’s quiet consistency keeps him in striking distance without a win this season. Rookie phenom Vandergriff’s speed has been undeniable all year, while Austin Prock’s first win of the season at Maryland suggests the reigning two-time champion is finally rounding into form at the right moment. For the technical differences between the nitro classes, our composite bodywork glossary and engine sound explainer offer useful background.
Pro Stock: Anderson vs. Glenn Is the Tightest Title Fight in NHRA
No points battle in the NHRA Mission Foods Drag Racing Series is closer than Pro Stock right now. Greg Anderson moved into the points lead at Thunder Valley and now holds just an 11-point edge over reigning world champion Dallas Glenn β a margin that a single bad qualifying session could erase entirely.

Anderson’s case is built on raw qualifying dominance: six No. 1 qualifiers through nine races in 2026, the most of any Pro Stock driver this season. His 1,000th career round win came earlier this year, and the six-time world champion has shown no signs of slowing down despite being one of the most experienced drivers in the field. Meanwhile, Glenn has answered every push with one of his own β his Route 66 win in May kept him glued to Anderson’s bumper all season.
| Pos | Driver | Points | 2026 Wins | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greg Anderson | 816 | 2 | Leader |
| 2 | Dallas Glenn | 805 | 1 | -11 |
| 3 | Matt Hartford | 627 | 3 | -189 |
| 4 | Greg Stanfield | 613 | 0 | -203 |
| 5 | Matt Latino | 518 | 0 | -298 |
Don’t overlook Matt Hartford, though. With three wins already in 2026 β including back-to-back Mission Challenge and points-race victories at Thunder Valley β Hartford is having the strongest season of his Pro Stock career at exactly the right time. Indianapolis has historically rewarded drivers peaking in late summer, and right now nobody in the class is peaking harder than Hartford. Learn more about how naturally aspirated engines differ from forced-induction setups in our turbo vs. naturally aspirated engines guide.
Pro Stock Motorcycle: Gadson’s Lead Meets Herrera’s Surge
Defending world champion Richard Gadson leads Pro Stock Motorcycle with 557 points, a 68-point cushion that’s actually the largest of his season so far. Notably, Gadson’s title-winning breakthrough came at this exact track a year ago β his first career win, beating teammate Gaige Herrera in the Thunder Valley final, kicked off a championship run that ended with three more wins and the 2025 title.
“Of course, I always want to win, but I’m not chasing peaks and valleys this season. I’m heavy on the steady-does-it train right now… This is the biggest points lead I’ve had all year, so it’s playing out great.” β Richard Gadson
However, Gaige Herrera has reasserted himself as the rider to fear. His Thunder Valley win β a redemption performance after a rare first-round exit in Maryland β moved him into third place, just five points behind Angie Smith and within real striking distance of his own teammate. Herrera is a two-time world champion chasing a third title, and his consistency at events with elevated points stakes has historically been the best in the category.
| Pos | Rider | Points | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richard Gadson | 557 | Leader |
| 2 | Angie Smith | 489 | -68 |
| 3 | Gaige Herrera | 484 | -73 |
| 4 | Matt Smith | 460 | -97 |
Angie Smith deserves real consideration too. Her qualifying speed all season has matched or beaten Herrera’s on multiple weekends, and the all-Smith Pro Stock Motorcycle final earlier this year showed she’s capable of going through anyone in the field on the right day. With two regular-season races remaining before points reset for the Countdown, the margin separating second through fourth could realistically flip more than once before Labor Day.
Dark Horses Worth Watching at Indy
Points position and Indianapolis performance don’t always match up. The U.S. Nationals has a long history of rewarding drivers who simply have the fastest car for one specific weekend, regardless of where they sit in the standings. A handful of names fit that profile heading into September.
- Maddi Gordon (Top Fuel) β The rookie sensation has already posted back-to-back 340-mph runs and a strong qualifying performance at Route 66. Her ceiling on a single qualifying lap may be the highest of anyone in the class.
- Austin Prock (Funny Car) β The reigning two-time champion finally broke through with his first win of 2026 at Maryland. A driver of his caliber finding form in August is a genuine threat to win Indy outright.
- Aaron Stanfield (Pro Stock) β A Route 66 winner already this season, Stanfield has the kind of explosive single-weekend pace that suits a 16-car elimination bracket more than a full points campaign.
- Joey Gladstone (Pro Stock Motorcycle) β A surprise ride at Thunder Valley still produced a quarterfinal run. On the right setup, Gladstone has shown he can hang with the Vance & Hines factory effort.
The 16-car field in each professional category locks after Sunday qualifying. Monday’s single-elimination bracket is seeded by qualifying position β number one faces number 16, and so on β with the No. 1 qualifier earning lane choice for every round they advance. That structure is exactly why a dark horse with one great qualifying lap can beat a points leader who simply draws a tougher ladder. See our breakdown of how racing drivers qualify for more on bracket seeding.
For a full look at every session time, broadcast window, and the qualifying format at Indianapolis this year, see our complete 2026 NHRA U.S. Nationals schedule and TV guide.
- NHRA.com β Official 2026 Points Standings
- NHRA.com β Thunder Valley Nationals Race Recap
- Competition Plus β Full Points Standings After Bristol
- NHRA.com β Official 2026 Schedule Announcement
- Dragzine β Thunder Valley Results & Driver Quotes
- Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park β Official U.S. Nationals Event Info
Frequently Asked Questions β 2026 U.S. Nationals Favorites
What to watch for between now and Labor Day
Two regular-season races remain before the points-and-a-half weekend at Indianapolis, and every one of the four professional classes has a genuinely contested points battle at the top. Anderson’s 11-point edge over Glenn in Pro Stock is the tightest title fight in the sport right now, while Langdon’s 114-point Top Fuel cushion is the closest thing to a sure bet β and even that isn’t safe against a hot Kalitta or Brown.
Indianapolis rewards the driver with the fastest car for six days, not necessarily the driver who’s led the standings the longest. We’ll update this page as qualifying gets underway over Labor Day weekend.











